First, I hope you and your family are healthy and well. The coronavirus outbreak has thrown life into a bit of chaos. We’ll see how our home schooling goes but b-school starts for my kids next week so I can’t wait for my 13 and 8 yr old to be talking about gross vs. net margin.

I have been thinking about what some of the longer term implications, good and bad, might be for an extended period of life, health and business disruption. Here are some of the things I’m keeping my eye on:

1. Sadly, there will be a large number of bankruptcies (personal and business) from this. With 40%+ of people living paycheck to paycheck and working in services businesses that can no longer pay them, this will quickly get rough. A $1,000 or more check from the government will help but just delay the inevitable.
2. The best idea I’ve heard for how to stem as many small business (and thus personal) bankruptcies is for the government to immediately back interest free loans administered by banks. Zero interest was nearly done by the Fed. Now they need to come with the guarantees. The condition is that your have to keep most of your employees paid and at similar wages. There will still be some failures (and fraud) but its a small price to pay vs. 20% unemployment.
3. There will be serious innovation around accommodating work from home. The raw materials are in place but it’s still a rough experience with few firms fully committed to it. After this, more will be willing to do it fully (given the savings) and the tools and culture will follow.
4. This will give sufficient momentum for a broader government administered healthcare plan. It won’t necessarily be Medicare-for-all as that is too disruptive too quickly but the journey has started.
5. Sadly, kids are feeling some of the bigger impact not only missing schooling but also sports and other activities that are so important for them. They’re resilient and will bounce back but I feel for the 12 yr olds missing their final year of Little League.
6. Online shopping will cement itself even further and have a step function shift from retail. Many people will try new things and build new habits.
7. Amazon will creek and bend under the strain but make it through. That they selectively prohibited some inventory being shipped to their warehouses this week is one sign of them trying to get ahead of it.
8. The coronavirus will not go away but become another annual SARS class infection we’ll have to deal with. Poorer countries will suffer disproportionately for years.
9. The FDA (and similar in other countries) will realize the benefits of a streamlined testing and approval process. New drugs being developed by algorithm (like the one now being tested for coronavirus) will become more and more common and partially address the antibiotic resistance issue.